Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un - Past, Present and Future? (Source: Kim Jong-il Looking at Things)
Everyone must have heard already, but North Korea’s Dear Leader is dead, and while we should expect a lot of crocodile tears, one wonders how many real tears of grief will be shed, particularly as it opened the door for Kim Jong-un to become successor – as North Korean media is now announcing (according to the WSJ).
Kim Jong-il reportedly died on the morning of the 17th, so presumably it took a few days for the Kim dynasty to reaffirm its power and map out the way ahead. What does the future hold for the Hermit state and its relations with its neighbors?
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A former contributor to World Intelligence (Japan Military Review), James Simpson joined Japan Security Watch in 2011, migrating with his blog Defending Japan. He has a Masters in Security Studies from Aberystwyth University and is currently living in Kawasaki, Japan.
His primary interests include the so-called 'normalization' of Japanese security (i.e. militarization), and the political impact of the abduction issue with North Korea.
James Simpson has 254 post(s) on Japan Security Watch
8 comments
Brian says:
Dec 18, 2011
If his intended successor is well established in power, I will see little or no lashing out for few years.
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James Simpson says:
Dec 18, 2011
It's possible that Kim Jong-un will succeed with a tighter control over the country, indeed that seems to have been the point of the grooming over the last year, but it seems more likely that Kim Jong-il's death will open the door for some contest – that's if there is anyone left to purge.
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jlilly085 says:
Dec 18, 2011
Another big power shift this year. egypt,libya, now north korea is getting a new leader. bad tensions with pakistan, iran, china, and russia are mounting, 1 million troops have been called home, something big is happening. good luck and god bless
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HB Pencil says:
Dec 18, 2011
Anybody else read Jonathan Pollack's IISS Adelphi Paper, No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International security. ? Although more focused on the nuclear issue, it had some brilliant observations on the succession in the DPRK as well as the political structure. It seems as if Jong-Un was in the grooming process like his father experienced under his grandfather.
I somewhat expect there to be no change for some time as well. Too many vested interests in keeping the state as-is.
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James Simpson says:
Dec 19, 2011
I think, in terms of stability, this coming year will be the litmus test. If the reports over the past year are correct, then the government and military has been significantly purged ahead of Jong-un's succession – but all it takes is an enterprising general with a bit of support and we could see some unrest. Unlikely though.
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War Is Boring » Japan Security Watch: Kim Jong Il Dead: What Now? says:
Dec 18, 2011
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Tri-ring says:
Dec 18, 2011
I believe the grooming period was too short for his son to gain control over many parts of the military and government.
Although this may be a wild speculation but, I believe his elder brother will pull some strings in which N.Korea will become a large narcotic exporter and China may become one of the largest consumer.
The route will be by sea from NK into the east china sea which and brought into Shanghai by Chinese fishing boats that are rapidly losing fishing grounds due to pollution and tightening of security by neighboring nations.
From Shanghai it could be transported by either sea or land to Hong Kong.
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Robert says:
Dec 19, 2011
If China is as astute as I sometimes think(and other times wonder what the heck is wrong with them?),then they already have people in
NoKor advising "the new guy" to A)fix your economy B) get rid of the nukes.These two things would serve China's interest and also serve the common good.This could be a situation where China,by serving her interest, could inadvertently serve Japan,U.S. and SoKor aims by getting a more stable,non nuclear buffer state for themselves.This is the best scenario that has a chance.
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