See here for James’ previous, and more detailed in terms of capabilities, post on the Eurofighter Typhoon.
In my previous post some may have perceived a subtle suggestion that the F-35 was the frontrunner in Japan’s F-X fighter jet competition. This may well be the case but the 4-country Eurofighter consortium is not going to die wondering and is making a strong case for selection later on this year. Former UK Chief of the Air Staff Sir Glenn Torpy, and current senior military advisor to BAE Systems, sat down for an interview (jp) with the Sankei Shimbun to make the case for the Eurofighter Typhoon.
According to Torpy, the Eurofighter is the more appropriate choice for the Japanese government when it starts to purchase next generation fighters in 2016. The main strength Torpy referred to was the Eurofighter’s superior in-air performance and the fact that it is a air superiority fighter first and foremost compared to the F-35. Torpy referenced its 4 minute take-off, ability to climb to 40,000 feet in 2 minutes, and ability to maintain manoeuvrability at 55,000 feet. Glen, who has flown both the Typhoon and the FA-18 which is also in the competition, admits that from the point of view of air superiority, the F-22 (which Japan wanted but is subject to an export ban from the US) towers above the rest.
In discussing the others Torpy argues that the FA-18, which is being used in the current war in Libya, is better suited operations involving ground targets but lacks manoeuvrability over 50,000 feet.
In regards to the Typhoon, Torpy points to the fact that it is combat-ready and is already being used by 6 nations while the F-35 is still under development (Torpy generously does not mention the significant cost overruns the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program has suffered from). Citing BAE Systems participation in F-35 co-development, Torpy believes that while both are multi-role fighters it would be more appropriate to describe the F-35 as a attack aircraft first and foremost, with the ability to operate as an air superiority fighter as a secondary mission. He says the Eurofighter Typhoon on the other hand is an excellent interceptor aircraft, but is also able to perform as a attack fighter. In other words, given Japan’s desire for a fighter with extensive air defense capabilities, the Typhoon would be the most suitable choice on the basis of capabilities alone.
Torpy also references the possibility that Japan may have to purchase FA-18s from the US while it waits for the F-35 to be completed and go into production. Citing the duplication of primary mission roles, in addition to Japan’s specific strategic needs at this point in time, Torpy believes the next best air defense fighter after the F-22, the Eurofighter, is the logical choice. He also makes mention of the FA-18s high running costs and the fact is intended to deployed to aircraft carriers.
The other advantage cited, and a very crucial one given yesterday’s post in regards to relaxing the arms export ban, is the fact that there is no black-boxing with the Eurofighter and thus Japanese companies would be free to manufacture them on license in Japan. While the US has recently suggested it might allow Japan to build some parts of the F-35 in Japan, clearly the Eurofighter would present less difficulties in terms of technology sharing and confidentiality (and thus be very good for Japanese companies and thus Japan’s advanced fighter development capabilities).
In terms of some of the broader issues discussed in yesterday’s post, it is quite likely that the Eurofighter would present less problems. While the EU itself from time to time suggests that it might relax or abolish the weapons export ban on China, relaxation of this ban does not equate to countries, especially Eurofighter co-producers, being willing to actually export the fighter to China (Which would be a) strategically unacceptable for Japan given who the fighters would be purchased to “intercept” and b) contrary to the what the modified arms export principles are likely to be).
The big problem, as pointed out by the article itself, is given pre-existing tension in the US-Japan alliance whether the Japanese government is willing to test the US’ patience on this. Frankly, if the US and Japan were secure about the alliance situation then considering the Eurofighter should not be that much of an issue. However this is not the case and it is still likely that even if the F-35 is seen to be an inferior choice in terms of cost, mission suitability, and deployment timeliness, it will get preferential treatment by the government.
On the other hand, the Eurofighter might “publicly” raise less alarm bells. While Japan overtime is becoming more comfortable with this, being closely tied into the US military machine does still raise some eyebrows. While the Eurofighter is not an “EU” fighter as such, the EU’s more normatively orientated foreign policy might provide some useful cover if the Japanese government wanted to forestall public concern about relaxing the arms ban for this purpose. It could be argued that the Eurofighter is more faithful to one of the likely principles of any modified arms export regime, which is the “no export of weapons likely to cause harm to civilians” (ie an air defense/superiority fighter first and foremost vs the F-35′s identified primary role as an attack aircraft), although this kind of argument maybe a little bit too clever.
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Corey Wallace joined Japan Security Watch in 2011. He writes on Japan security-related topics, focusing on issues and stories that may not find their way into the English language media. He also hosts the blog Sigma1 where he writes on Japanese domestic politics and broader issues in international relations.
Prior to taking up a PhD Corey was a participant on the JET program (2004-2007) and on returning to New Zealand he worked at the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology from 2007-2010 as a policy adviser. Corey lectures two courses at the University of Auckland. One is on the international relations of the Asia-Pacific, which contains a significant focus on East Asia security issues. The other is a course on China's international relations.
His primary academic interests before his current Japan focus were science and technology politics/policy, issues of ethnic identity, and Chinese modern history and politics. He carries over his interest in issues of identity and history into his PhD where he is looking at generationally situated concepts of national identity and their impact on foreign policy ideas in Japan.
Corey Wallace has 51 post(s) on Japan Security Watch
22 comments
Tri-ring says:
Jul 7, 2011
I believe the choice would be politicized but I don't think the F-35 would be chosen simply due to the time frame. Another interesting point would be Japan's desire in relaxing self imposed ban on military equipment.
Britain recently abandoned their Nimrod 3 development plans and are in search of a replacement. I believe a cross licensing agreement between Kawasaki and BAE for the P-1 in exchange of Eurofighter Typhoon would bring benefit for both nations.
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Corey Wallace says:
Jul 8, 2011
Tri-ring – that is an excellent insight, and the sort of thinking that needs to be engaged in for the Japanese to make the best decision.
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James Simpson says:
Jul 7, 2011
Excellent points, Corey, but I would also point out two further issues:
1. Interoperability: The Air Self-Defense Force are far more reliant on compatibility with USAF/USN systems than the RAF et al are. This is not necessarily something that the Typhoon is lacking, but rather it is something inherent in US-developed systems. The Libya conflict has been a great showcase to elucidate the Typhoon's true abilities, but still, this issue will weigh heavily on the minds of the staff at Ichigaya.
2. Preference: The ASDF is very much interested in self-sufficiency, it is at the root of their organisational culture and is deep-rooted in their procurement procedures. You already mentioned black-boxing, but the other issue will be further development of the systems and adaptation. This may truly work in the Typhoon's favour given it's development history.
As a British RAF brat, I would love to see the Typhoon flying over Japan. It's a great fighter, and it would be an ideal F-X. I'm glad to see that the Embassy is also getting behind the push. Japan's ties to Britain were once the strongest among its other allies, it is a shame that we never managed to cultivate such strong ties outside the Navy in the post-War.
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Corey Wallace says:
Jul 8, 2011
James, very interesting. The more that I think about it, the more it seems to make sense for the Eurofighter – and the risks of making a bad decision are much less with the Eurofighter – it is a know quantity and it isn't a qualitative step down, if at all, from the F-35, while with the F-35, yes it could turn out very well, but with timing and cost etc it could also be quite complicated down the track. The Eurofighter is a guaranteed success in other words.
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Kyle Mizokami says:
Jul 8, 2011
There's also the cost factors to consider. The best figures I could come with are as follows:
F/A-18 Super Hornet: $54 million USD
F-35 Lightning II: $100+ USD
Eurofighter Typhoon: $110 million USD (UK NAO figures)
Considering the economic crunch Japan finds itself in, the cheaper aircraft might prove be more attractive. It might also help ensure that the 40-60 plane buy actually turns out to be a 60 plane buy.
If I were Japan, I would accept a multi-role aircraft for less, and then roll the savings into developing the best interceptor possible (ATD-X) to replace the F-15.
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Corey Wallace says:
Jul 8, 2011
Kyle, certainly it will be a consideration for the decision-makers. I noticed that Torpy mentioned the issue with the FA-18 was very high maintenance costs – I wonder if that changes the cost equation considerations a bit.
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Robert says:
Jul 8, 2011
I am just going to touch on one thing mentioned and that is the concern cited about the potential alliance damage. Assuming this is a real concern what does Japan think the U.S. will do,take their ball and go home?I wish the Japanese would realize that they are the ones driving and if I were them I would never ,ever miss a chance to remind the U.S. that "you need us more than we need you".The U.S. is so wedded to their situation in Japan that they would do almost anything to make sure that that never ends(bases,ports,etc).I have no reason to believe that Japan will do anything other than reinforce their dependence on the U.S. by buying the F-35. Kyle your last sentence makes the most sense to me
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Corey Wallace says:
Jul 8, 2011
Robert, you are right and the US will not take their ball home and cut and run from the alliance. However the problem is that bureaucracies don't tend to think this way – what will create the less complications for them is usually what concerns them (although they will never admit it, but it is obvious to anyone). There is a tendency to go for the minimally acceptable decision that causes them the least complications. Of course it is the MOD rather than MOFA involved in the process so that might be a plus as they tend to feel the gaiatsu a little less, although who really knows exactly what the process is. I guess we can only wait and see!
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JamesinUS says:
Sep 11, 2011
I'd buy the F-18SH. The new model coming out is supposed to be a beast. Conformal fuel tanks for better range, more powerful engines, better systems, and other goodies.
Not to mention the F-18 is believed to be able to beat the F-35 in air to air so………as far as its ground strike? Please. Anyways the F-18 can have the same systems the F-35 does in a few years anyhow.
I was all for selling the F-22 to the Japanese. Hell another 40 or maybe even 50 or 60 would have brought the plane down even further. I believe the final price was projected at 120mil per frame for each aircraft……………….of course they HAD TO HAVE THE F-35. F-35 is a political monster not a Military one.
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Corey Wallace says:
Sep 11, 2011
"F-35 is a political monster not a Military one"
This is the impression that I get also, which is what worries me in regards to the final FX decision ie will value for money and the required capabilities really be paid sufficient attention. I'll keep an eye on the F-18SH – sounds interesting and about right for Japan – given Japan's security doctrine is only slowly evolving then an enormously expensive multi-role fighter (that might not even be delivered on time!) seems a bridge too far. Something specialized, reasonably priced and "good enough" in terms of the missions ASDF is likely to perform, should be their focus. Decision due near end of the year I believe.
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JosephinChiangMai says:
Sep 11, 2011
Dear Mr. Corey Wallace
Couple of points here…
1) Personally, I don't see F-X as a military program. It is a propaganda program, conducted by Japanese government, to keep Japanese from losing confidence at their nation against the Chinese. Just like the goal of Chinese government of releasing information on J-20 and aircraft carrier is to scare neighboring country, the goal of F-X is to counter that.
2) I really don't see Japanese doing anything with F-X until American decide what they want to do with F-35, or more importantly, what they want to buy to replace F-15/F-16/F-18/AV-8B. Once that is settled, Japanese government will follow suit.
3) The Eurofighter has no hope of winning F-X, unless 1) Japanese government decided to trash the security agreement with US and signed one with Europe, or 2) the US decided to trash F-35 and use the Eurofighter to replace the current fleet of fighter aircraft.
Joseph
(BTW, nice profile picture. Are you a Naruto fan?)
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Corey Wallace says:
Sep 11, 2011
Hi Joseph, many thanks for your comments!
I'll address them in reverse order.
Comments 2 and 3 – I also suspect that political considerations may supersede defense considerations here and I would like to be pleasantly surprised. I personally believe that if the US-Japan alliance was a mature one that it would be able to handle Japan purchasing major hardware from a competitor to the US. If the Eurofighter did win the F-X and relations continued with only a minimum of tension then it would be a positive sign for both countries. But I have my doubts.
As for number one, I would say by the standard you have given here, almost all military programs are by definition propaganda ones! Maybe that is the sad state of human affairs that we can't escape.
Nevertheless, to be more specific, the F-X program has been ongoing for quite some time now, in many stops and starts. The sudden appearance of the J-20 this year and the quicker than expected launch of the Shi Lang surprised everyone but the F-X program wasn't in response to this. It seems to be driven by bureaucratic imperatives more than political ones as far as I can tell.
Also it is interesting that you mention Japan losing confidence vis-a-vis the Chinese. This is a meme I hear quite a bit, especially in East Asian media etc but to be honest the Japanese generally aren't that bothered by the "competition" with China. When China became no.2 in GDP this year there was almost no reaction from the Japanese public or media. I think most Japanese of the younger generation in particular do not see Japan in a competition with China but with the world as a whole. I agree some of the older generation China is important as a cultural reference, but I suspect younger Japanese today feel more challenged by South Korea than China. When South Korea signed a FTA with the EU, and looked to be getting closer to signing with the US, that got much more press and commentary than what China does. Except for China's military build-up of course. But considering the Japanese public's general anti-militaristic disposition that doesn't impress them – quite the opposite.
Last, yes I do watch Naruto – right from the start many years ago. I like the twisted but ultimately "good" characters like Gaara, Pain
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JosephinChiangMai says:
Sep 12, 2011
Thank you for your response, Cory. About the maturity of US-Japan relationship, I personally don't believe US would allow Japan to buy anything non-US simply because the money involved and the shame it will occur if Japanese announce the winner of F-X is a non-US platform. The Chinese will sure have a field day with it.
As for F-X/J-20 connection, you made the same point as Tri-ring, but your point does not refute my point since the possibility is there.
As for China vs. Japan thing, I am a Chinese-or Taiwanese according to Chinese. I was raised in Taiwan but spent half of my life in the US. That's why I notice your profile picture is a tailed beast. I watch Naruto too. I personally think character like Pein needs more development after he met Naruto, before he sacrifice himself
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Tri-ring says:
Sep 11, 2011
I believe you had came to the wrong conclusions on all three points.
1. The Shin-Shin ADX was announce before the J-20 ever surfaced and was said at the time to be a political stunt to persuade the US in lifting the export embargo on the F-22.
2. F-X program is considered to be the replacement for the F-2/F-15J which will reach airframe life span within this decade. Japan had already announced they had approved funding for this program and is completely outside any of the US fighter program time frame.
3.Japan had shown willingness to purchase from nations beside the US when they bought the AW101. Although in limited quantity it does prove that Japanese military market is not completely closed.
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JosephinChiangMai says:
Sep 12, 2011
Tri-ring:
1. You first point does not necessarily refute mine. All you said there was that F-X is "there" before J-20 without addressing if the most recent F-X restart had nothing to do with J-20. My point is that F-X is meant to counter J-20.
2. It is funny you mention funding. "Funding" means absolutely nothing until F-X program come into completion. Before that, it is all talk.
3. Is the Japanese market closed? No. But two factors make things very difficult for non-US competitor. First, the slumping economy in the US will make US government make every attempt to force Japanese government to buy stuff made by the US. Also, are you aware of the problems Taiwan Navy and Air Force experience with their French made weapon system? I believe the French weapon systems are good, but Taiwanese armed forces has had problems integrating French weapon system into their existing US made C4ISR system. Will that be a problem like that? I don't know for sure. What I do know is that Japanese is not going to take this much effort and money into a platform that cannot be significantly better than what they have had.
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Tri-ring says:
Sep 13, 2011
1. Like I said the Shin-Shin F-X program started way before the J-20 surfaced. JASDF may use it to justify their program but was in no way to counter any new potential threat you are driving at. I also pointed out that the F-15J and the F-2 are reaching their airframe life time that is the main reason nothing more.
2. It wasn't just talks since they already had a mock-up tested in France for cross section and a 1/15th scale radio control model to see aerodynamics so they were serious in developing.
3. You are forgetting the most important point, Japan will request license construction to maintain domestic suppliers, something LM will not be able to supply with so many international contractors involved. Japan is not going to buy anything off the shelf and is impossible for Japan to participate now so JSF is completely out of competition not to mention the delivery schedule will be completely out of the window needing to replace the aging F-4Js which will be decommissioned in the next couple of years.
It's a show down between F-18 and Eurofighter Typhoon in which the Typhoon has an upper hand since BAE already assured they will be no black boxes so Japan can introduce any domestic electronic systems of their choice making it a lot more beneficial for the domestic suppliers.
At the end we'll know the result at the end of this year or the next so let's just wait and see.
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champion21169@gmail. says:
Sep 12, 2011
I just don't know why you guys ignore the most obvious reasons for any of Japan's boneheaded decisions.The treaty with the U.S. I have said it before and I will say it again.That treaty affects every decision the Japanese make whether for good or bad and that is overall a negative for the long term for both the United States and Japan.Japanese security should be informed by what does the best job of insuring Japanese security.That sounds like day one stuff but because of the whole infection that that treaty has on every facet of Japanese decision making that is not the case with the Japanese.The Japanese seem less concerned about China's aggresive,expanding,revisionist examples because their overiding concern is with how "Japanese" actions affect their relations with U.S.The Japanese will buy U.S. period because their first and foremost consideration is "How does this affect the treaty" and not how does this help to ensure our long term security. cont.
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Robert says:
Sep 12, 2011
The fact that in this particular case the U.S. kit is the overall best choice is just a lucky coincidence for the Japanese as they would buy U.S. anyway as that is "Best for the Treaty.I applaud the Europeans for playing this game with the Japanese but after all thay have a vested interest in keeping U.S. happy too.Dang it I realized that I have entered the wrong info on poster id this is Robert.
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Tri-ring says:
Sep 13, 2011
One more thing I would like to point out, if you compare the i3 next generation fighter project proposed by Japan Defense Ministry Technical Research & Development Institute with the Boeing F/A-XX proposal you'll find many similarities in which I believe TRDI and Boeing is already comparing notes for a future joint development project in which case I believe Boeing would waiver the F-18 from the F-X selection so they would gain cooperation from Japan in developing the replacement for the F-18.
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Robert says:
Sep 13, 2011
What are they going to waive? Is the F-35 not the replacement for the F/A 18? Are you saying Boeing is going to contribute to the ATX/D? That might be one way for Japan to defray some of the costs but in that scenario they would have have to pick the F/A 18 for FX wouldn't they to save money?
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Tri-ring says:
Sep 14, 2011
For the present F-X program I do not think Boeing will be placing any emphasis merely participating to fill in a spot in the short list.
JASDF pilots praised the EF Typhoon as the best during their evaluation session and Boeing knew from the start that the F-18 was the least favorable. They also knew that the F-35 will not fit in the delivery schedule due to all the set back and back orders.
On the other hand, the Super Hornets still have sometime left(scheduled to be replace starting in 2025) and also knows that the Navy is not really happy with the F-35C's performance. Boeing is also aware of Japan's needs for replacements for the F-15s and F-2s at the end of the decade.
I really do not know who approach whom first but they had a common problem so they probably decided to fix the tender process for the replacement for the F-4Js, Boeing will not actively participate in exchange for TDRI's cooperation and possible future collaboration in designing and developing the i3 / F/A-XX proposal.
Boeing wants access to Japan's expertise in material engineering and miniaturization technology of various electronic components. In exchange Japan is interested in Boeing's vast knowledge in fighter design philosophy and engine technology. Neither are official government led project so they need to cut on research cost as much as possible not to follow the F-35 /F-2 debacle.
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Robert says:
Nov 21, 2011
This is a short article about cracks in the F-35B's thought ya'll might want to take a look http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art…f-35bs-365…
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